Nintendo Expects To Sell 15 Million Switch 2 Consoles This Financial Year

In other words, Nintendo expects the Switch 2 to outsell the Wii U in less than a year

Hardware sure, software maybe not so much.

Simple answer, yes, easily! And hopefully this time next year, there will be loads still on ebay at the original retail price!

I've got my pre-order in, it's going to be huge. Google trends shows Switch 2 quickly catching up to the Switch in search queries too.

I think it sells out the first week. So yeah how many they have available they will sell.

I think they are on the low side here. Perhaps they have not had the Switch in production for as long as some leakers were suggesting. Mario Kart World will be a beast no matter what the price is.

Nintendo: In one year's time, we'll sell... ONE MILLION UNITS.
Industry: That's... That's actually really small.
Nintendo: Oh... I meant TEN MILLION UNITS.
Industry: That's a little too reasonable considering you're sold out everywhere.
Nintendo: How about... 15 Million? Is that too high?
Industry: I mean that's... Sure. Yeah, that's pretty good.
Nintendo: It's good? Sounds strong? Confident? Imposing?
Industry: Yeah, mhm.
Nintendo: Okay good.

Nintendo: 15 MILLION UNITS.

I'm wondering if mario kart world will have the evergreen staying power of mario kart 8 deluxe. Time will tell

@SwitchplayerJohn only estimated by the rumour mill. This is Nintendo's own forecasting.

If they could find a way to get a £99/$99 Switch out there in a year or so's time once the S2 is established and hopefully the Tariffs are gone. Could see them easily topping the PS2.

@Simu001,

It's a given. Nintendo's biggest franchise and their best selling game. It pretty much sells itself. I always wanted a Mario Kart game with a hub type area like Diddy Kong racing. But an open world game is beyond my wildest dreams.

They will probably manage that. I mean looking at Japan only and how the website crashed for the pre-orders I can't imagine it to be anything else than 15 million. The software sales I'm not too sure about. They mean to sell an average of 3 games per Switch 2. That doesn't sound unreasonable, but given their new pricing policy, it might be a hard target.

15 Million with that hefty price tag and game key card for most of 3rd party Switch 2 games??
I don't think so...

Seems pretty reasonable to me, successor to a wildly popular system, backwards compatible, significant power bump, pricing of the console is fine compared with the other handhelds, etc etc

I doubt it will have much impact at all but I think it would be nice to have abit more of a roadmap for exclusives, DK, Mario Kart are great but not sure how interesting Kirby Air Riders or Hyrule warriors will be to many people

Make a limited-edition Xenoblade version and I'll buy 2 million myself! But not any more than that because that would be ridiculous and unrealistic.

The Switch 1 sold 13.12 million in its first year. Selling 15 million would be awesome.

Q4 of eighth year, with the backward compatible successor announced and still with no price cuts in sight... and "just" 1.26 million sales? Sounds like one of the most enviable halts in history to grind to. Switch is less than 3 million units away from the lifetime sales top now, and even Nintendo's own cautious forecasts put the latter milestone well within the current fiscal year. The lower price and the controllers remaining at least partly compatible with next gen only seem to grease these wheels further.

"Counting eggs before they hatch..."

Where are the new quarter financial results? They didn't update Switch's sales since the last year, according to their official website!
Edit: Switch 1 sold 152,12 million units, thanks, Gematsu.

15 million isn't their 12 month target. 15 million is what they expect to sell in 10 months (June '25 - end of March '26)

Selling systems now on day one isn't very hard for a major company. Month 2 will be more telling.

@NotASockPuppet Stock prices are built on mirages and voodoo.

I wouldn't be sure it gets there. This is a lot more expensive and the economy is insanely worse off compared to 2017. The world's dumbest man didn't have a chance to ruin everything then.

I hope a Switch 1 price drop happens at some point. Any point! I want to buy my daughter her own Switch, but they need to be cheaper before I’ll do that.

@mariomaster96 I really hope It doesn't. I see no innovation, no risk in Switch 2. Being successful, Switch 3 Will be a (more expensive) Switch 2 Pro and so on. Welcome to the Furakawa era

@Simu001
Most likely, but that because of the paid DLC it will have.
At least three sets.

I find it really funny that it's forecasted to beat WiiU lifetime sales in it's first year. Poor WiiU

@Divinebovine I really hope It doesn't. I see no innovation, no risk in Switch 2. Being successful, Switch 3 Will be a (more expensive) Switch 2 Pro and so on. Welcome to the Furakawa era

Switch sales wont grind to a halt for some time, and if prices are reduced or they bring out a Switch Lite OLED (today’s version of the New 2DS XL) they could still string out a few more million. Imagine Metroid 4 and all the other great games in a pocketable size console with a great screen. One that also serves as an additional controller for multiplayer games on SW2….

15 million hardware units sounds plausible. But I expect the software attach rate is going to see a major decline.

@Anti-Matter
The NS2 has already sold out in many countries and set to have a bigger launch than the PS4 & PS5, despite the cost.

I had it in my head switch 1 was at 150 million units. Looks like they project another 4.5 million for this year.
Doesn’t look like switch 1 will crack Playstation 2 unless Nintendo slashes prices or something wild.

Sounds pretty reasonable. Hopefully they’ll be able to meet demand.

@timp29 The PS2 was sold for well over a decade. I don’t think the Switch will have much trouble surpassing it unless Sony decides to move the goalpost again.

Why are there Nintendo haters using WiiU comparison again that has no relevance to Switch at all. Assuming the production keeps up they could hit that target number.

@timp29 It is at 155 now though, so it doesn't have much more than the 4.5 million to sell to usurp the PS2. It only needs to sell 6, maybe 7 million units to defeat PS2, 10 million more if Sony keeps rounding up. Considering current levels of momentum with a new console announced, it won't be difficult for Nintendo to break the barrier with the next two years of life support; if they give the console an official price cut, it will reach it in no time.

@MrDocena 15 million would be on par with the first Switch in a similar timeframe. Not really ambitious. More like expected minimum. I expect 17 or 18 million.

@Paulo SNES, Gamecube, GBA, 3DS. Having a successor system that doesn't change much from the previous system besides being more powerful is the most normal Nintendo thing to do if you pay attention the the company history.

@PolitiClank @timp29 As of March the Switch is at 152.12 million units.

So, we just glazing over the fact that Switch 1 is now the best selling Nintendo console. & potentially best selling overall unless Sony keep moving the goal post??

If Nintendo is predicting 15 million sold in 10 months then I'm guessing that's how many they are planning on making. It's that simple. The world has over 8 billion people. For every person on here saying it won't sell that much b/c costs, power, games or whatever, there are a dozen people waiting to buy 1 regardless of all of those things b/c it's a better Switch. And after 8 years people really want a better Switch.

Given the preorder craze, It probably already sold that much before launch. Unlike the game analyst predictions, I am expecting the switch 2 to outsell the switch 1 within the same time intervals. In other words, year one Switch 2 sales may surpass year one Switch 1 sales: Year two Switch 2 sales will surpass Year two Switch 1 sales… and so on. Only time well truly tell but I have a strong feeling about this based on what we are seeing so far and seeing Nintendo dramatic change in strategy we are use to.

@SwitchplayerJohn They didn't have any previous estimates. That was an analyst. May still happen.

@Jhena Where did you get 13.12 millio from? Was that sell through? Because the shipment was 14.86 million in 2017 and 15.05 in the fiscal year from April 2017 to March 2018.

@BTB20
I just googled " Nintendo Switch first year sales", and according to
statista.com it was 13,12 million. The short text I read did not say whether it is sell through or shipped though.

Good luck with that especially with that price and awful practice. Wouldn't surprise me if it falls short.

Switch should surpass DS and thus become Nintendo's best selling system ever sometime this summer, probably in July/August so we'll hear about it in October. As for beating PS2's record, based on their estimate I'd say Switch is going to absolutely crawl to that record. We'll see if it can get there.

As for Switch 2, it should have no problem meeting that estimate so long as the price of the system remains as is. If tariffs cause a price increase in the US, then it will probably fall short.

So they flipped a coin 100 times and got 15 head calls

Fine

@IceClimbers
The PS2 numbers are a joke anyways.

Correcting this long thereafter should be forbidden
Then again
The PS2 is a DVD Player

@Serpenterror
Logical consensus would suggest so.
But the initial surge they'll have still.

It might fall off if no real new exclusive Software follows.
And soon

@Skullkid87
Aside Sony fanppl noone cares...
It's cute. But worthless.
SoftwareSales on Switch tho ?
Insane

@PerfectFrost If you pay attention to the Company history, you will notice that more power back then allowed for different gameplay. F-Zero, Mario Kart, Pilotwings etc would not have been possible on the NES. Same goes for the GBA when It comes to portable gaming. The 3DS had glasses-free 3D, which was incredible at the time. The GameCube is fine, but It was the reason Nintendo decide to move to the blue ocean to stánd out. More power nowadays usually means framerates, lightning etc. Switch 2 has a lot to prove, but I can sense It will be just fine, but not amazing, at a very high price. Meh.

@Paulo If this is the world view you are choosing to see things through then that's how you'll see it I guess but in reality this is nothing out of the ordinary. More powerful system with some gimmicks thrown in like dual mouse controlls. Very normal to be honest, especially for their handhelds, but if that's how you feel then that's how you feel.

That is totally doable as long as they can have stock to consistently meet with demand. People forgot that early Switch 1 life had stock issues to deal with.

@TrogdorTheBurninator Mario Kart World should not be underestimated as a software alone. Mario Kart was a top seller for the Switch 1 for a reason. Reminder people still bought MK8D (which in itself in an enhanced port of a Wii U game unlike World being its own game) years after it originally came out at full retail when it never got a permanent price cut. I don’t realistically see sales collapse just because it’s $80 especially if there are no other games to buy at the time anyway.

There are also other high consumer demand software coming later that year. This is Nintendo. They are not gonna struggle with 1st party software sales when they got a thick binder of 1st party software that sold at least a million copies with the Switch 1.

@Jhena Statista is not very reliable, especially when they write that the Switch sold 143.4 million consoles worldwide as of August 2024, despite that being the exact number that Nintendo reported in August 2024 to have been as of June 2024. Aka they don't pay attention and don't actually understand what the company is reporting. What other stupid mistakes are they making?

I saw their graph of Switch sales they had a few years ago, where the number in a random quarter in 2019, for no reason at all went down instead of up by the reported number and since then the total number lagged behind.

Nintendo reported shipments of 2.74 million in March 2017 and in the following quarters 1.96 million, 2.93 million and 7.23 million. Then in the quarter ending March 2018 another 2.93 million. They only report shipments, also in various regions.

@Anti-Matter Dude, are we literally going to have you voicing your distain for the Switch 2 for the next few years? Change the record please.

@elpardo1984 it's a fine line. Make SW1 too cheap and it becomes a competitor of SW2.

@BTB20
Thank you for the extra info. I will be more careful with statistics in the future. Just found another site, Gamasutra, they say the Switch sold almost 18 million units in its first year.

@Duncanballs yeah that’s why I was thinking a price drop after having given SW2 time to get a following. I think a bigger problem would be production being cheap enough to achieve a cheap lite model.

@Jhena Gamasutra is right on this if they mean from launch until the end of March 2018. That is almost 13 months, but you can call that it's first year. 2.74 million + 15.05 million is almost 18 million.

NS2 isn't going to get a price drop more like a price rise. The Switch 1 OELD will most likely get a price drop to forcast NS2 is going to become the goto Hybrid Console to have. Now if we only can get micro exSD price drop and more inventory this will be something nice.

I wish the big red Gorilla success with their new game unit, but I staunchly believe part of the OG Switch's appeal occurred during COVID lock-down when kids (and adults!) were bored with "nothing to do."

We will see. I think it won't be THAT fast but a fair amount. Not all jump to sequel consoles or next ones. Not all have the games people want, not all have the money, interest or want more out of the console/games too.

But each varies.

Search terms is one thing, actual hardcore that buy it sure, Youtubers, other types of people.

Casuals or other hardcore that aren't Nintendo dedicated but still enjoy the platform and are more willing to wait yeah we will see.

Advertising or not, timing of other things for people to do, what games, if people care for another. I mean 3DS, SNES, Wii U all are sequel consoles. Yet no one talks about the SNES in the same way. Sure different era in comparison to the 3DS/Wii U so things are different and a new console then is different to gaming nowadays but even still.

A number of factors can be the case of pricing, a reason to buy the next one with a new one in a series, the types of casual games or otherwise. Depends how much people really care or see around them.

@Duncanballs There's an ignore button if that helps. I'm guessing a lot already did.

@Zyph Thank you. I will make use of it.

@BTB20
Nice, thank you. So Nintendo expects a little bit more succes than the Switch 1 had, since the financial year is not a complete year, right?

@Jhena Yeah, I'd say so.

That’s a popular claim that I have seen… that PS2 basically was the cheapest DVD player on the market for the longest time. What are people’s thoughts? Is that even a fair claim? If true, it really does tarnish their sales records as ‘best selling console of all time’

@Paulo i hope it does well tbh. Cause the switch is really good for how I play games right now. I do most gaming on lunch breaks at work. I have a family now so the TV is usually taken, so this portable home console thing rocks

As a Paper Mario fan, it’s great to hear The Thousand-Year Door remake is considered to be a success by Nintendo themselves!

@Paulo to many fan boys eating this crap up

@timp29 I did read somewhere people bought the PS to watch movie because it was relative inexpensive to game and watch movies on. That's what sold the PS system.

And fiscal year doesn't end at December 2025 but in 2026 so they could by that time have 20+ mils unit sold assuming tariffs doesn't jack prices.

@NolandC *to many fan boys eating this crap *
Huh? This is a Nintendo site what are you spouting about here?